Kevin Francis: When will Pierre Dorion finally resolve RFA Tkachuk and Brown situations?

After they sign offer sheets.

I seriously don’t understand the idea behind Logan Brown. Dude has been injured and hasn’t been able to put together a full season in a long time.
Why is it in the interest of the Senators - a team coming out of a rebuild, to not allow players to develop and rush them?
I don’t get it. Nazem Kadri was incredibly hated in his time with Toronto and after 4 years he FINALLY broke through.
Logan Brown is a bigger forward and unless you’re Lindros or Sundin big players usually take many years to get acclimated to the NHL game.
Giving up on a high 1st round pick from five years ago is like trying to make harvest in late August - of course you will get something in return but nothing near what it would be if given the additional month to grow.


Why is there such a rush to get rid of Brown?
Why is there so much animosity and impatience with this player?
I don’t understand it and I don’t understand why you would trade an asset that is at its most lowest value.


Makes no sense to me. Brown could be a great 3C in the future and yet here is all the media and bandwagon folk ready to ship him out.
There is a difference between a “bust” and someone who has been riddled with “injuries”.
You got to give Brown more time.

Why is there such a rush to get rid of Brown?
Why is there so much animosity and impatience with this player?
I don’t understand it and I don’t understand why you would trade an asset that is at its most lowest value.
Makes no sense to me. Brown could be a great 3C in the future and yet here is all the media and bandwagon folk ready to ship him out.
There is a difference between a “bust” and someone who has been riddled with “injuries”.
You got to give Brown more time.
- Unholy_Forward

The issue is two-fold...
1) Brown has consistently failed to earn an NHL spot 5yrs after being drafted, and is now at the end of his entry-level contract.
2) It's actually Brown who's forcing the issue, because the team extended him a Qualifying Offer that he's refused to sign.

In fairness to Brown, he's had a lot of injuries and prospect competition, which has cost him several key opportunities to get more icetime exposure in the NHL. But it's also relatively clear that the coaching staff has wanted to see something more in Brown's game that he's been unable to develop effectively. Further to that, I would strongly contest that he has any NHL potential beyond that of a scoring line C... the skating and two-way ability just isn't there. Plus, it's not clear that the team is willing to just give up his rights. That's why it might be far more likely for him to play the year in Europe, where he can hopefully get more ice time, stay healthy, and prove that he's ready for more than AHL work... not unlike how the Oilers handled the Puljujarvi situation.

I seriously don’t understand the idea behind Logan Brown. Dude has been injured and hasn’t been able to put together a full season in a long time.
Why is it in the interest of the Senators - a team coming out of a rebuild, to not allow players to develop and rush them?
I don’t get it. Nazem Kadri was incredibly hated in his time with Toronto and after 4 years he FINALLY broke through.
Logan Brown is a bigger forward and unless you’re Lindros or Sundin big players usually take many years to get acclimated to the NHL game.
Giving up on a high 1st round pick from five years ago is like trying to make harvest in late August - of course you will get something in return but nothing near what it would be if given the additional month to grow.


Why is there such a rush to get rid of Brown?
Why is there so much animosity and impatience with this player?
I don’t understand it and I don’t understand why you would trade an asset that is at its most lowest value.


Makes no sense to me. Brown could be a great 3C in the future and yet here is all the media and bandwagon folk ready to ship him out.
There is a difference between a “bust” and someone who has been riddled with “injuries”.
You got to give Brown more time.
- Unholy_Forward

I agree 100 percent. This year is a golden opportunity to give him a chance and hope that he can finally stay healthy and realize some of his potential. It's not like the team with be a contender this year or they could get a great return for him.

Unfortunately this coach seems hell bent on moving on and playing a plug with zero upside instead.

There's been speculation that Brady was offered 8 * 8, which many feel is an overpayment.

What would be a fair production for that kind of contract.

If Brady becomes a 30G 30A guy, is that a good contract. Once you add in his "intangibles".

A lot of people mentioned your not just paying for his production, but you dont want to overvalue those other aspects

There's been speculation that Brady was offered 8 * 8, which many feel is an overpayment.
What would be a fair production for that kind of contract.
If Brady becomes a 30G 30A guy, is that a good contract. Once you add in his "intangibles".
A lot of people mentioned your not just paying for his production, but you dont want to overvalue those other aspects
- david22

I've kind of gone back and forth about this regarding Tkachuk. $8M/yr AAV would make Tkachuk the 29th highest paid forward in the NHL, when in terms of production he was tied for 74th in forward scoring last year, and tied for 58th in goals. But while that sounds like quite a gap, you then have to consider that the 58th highest paid forward in the NHL had a $6.4M AAV last year, and the 74th highest paid forward had a $6.0M AAV. Now a good number of those are objectively bad contracts, but you could make a pretty compelling case that Tkachuk has untapped scoring potential, in addition to his proven ability to put up 300+ hits/yr, and whatever value you attach to his leadership role.

To some extent, I just want the situation taken care of. The plus side of slightly overpaying Tkachuk with a max-term deal is the stability he would provide to the foundation of the team, plus the fact that it's highly unlikely that Tkachuk would stop being at least minimally producing at the level we've seen so far until he's ~30yo. It would also be hard for any other player to use his deal as a benchmark, given the rather unique additional qualities he brings to the table - so it might not even negatively impact he kinds of deals that Stutzle or Norris might eventually be looking for. Also, Tkachuk and Chabot are undeniably the foundation of the rebuild... so matching $8Mx8yr deals would not only have symmetry, but also establish that AAV as the functional internal cap.

Establishing the 8M cap to be competitive into the future is something I have been advocated for. It is super important going forward. Committing to a max 8x8 deal is a good idea.

If someone extend Tkachuk an offer sheet for let's say 8 mil. X3 plus 7x7x7 signing bonus does Melnyck have match only the AAV or also match the bonuses.

If someone extend Tkachuk an offer sheet for let's say 8 mil. X3 plus 7x7x7 signing bonus does Melnyck have match only the AAV or also match the bonuses.
- granpa

the entire contract, bonuses and clauses included.

Leafs are what everyone needs to look at. They have put 50% of their entire cap into 4 contracts. Consequently, they really don't have a competitive 3rd or 4th line. They are thin on defence and in goal. They will likely have a good regular season. And, there is no reason to expect a playoff outcome any different than before.

Every year we see teams that think they are ready to take a big step forward. This is my fear for the Sens. I don't think they are ready to make a run. It worries me when I hear Dorion say the rebuild is over.

If someone extend Tkachuk an offer sheet for let's say 8 mil. X3 plus 7x7x7 signing bonus does Melnyck have match only the AAV or also match the bonuses.
- granpa

It's both the AAV and contract structure. That was the whole point of the Aho RFA offer sheet with Montreal, they felt they could bully Carolina by front-loading the contract with both salary and signing bonus $$$. Case-in-point, Aho's contract is over 91% comprised of signing bonuses, with a year-over-year payout of $12.0M-$10.6M-$7.7M-$6.0M-$6.0M.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sebastian-aho

The real question is what happens if an RFA offer sheet comes in with a $9M x 7yr contract with a comparable signing bonus structure, where Melnyk would have to pay out something like $12M-$11M-$10M in signing bonuses over the first 3 years... and the compensation is nothing more than a pair of 1st round picks (likely in the 20-32 range), a 2nd, and a 3rd.

It's both the AAV and contract structure. That was the whole point of the Aho RFA offer sheet with Montreal, they felt they could bully Carolina by front-loading the contract with both salary and signing bonus $$$. Case-in-point, Aho's contract is over 91% comprised of signing bonuses, with a year-over-year payout of $12.0M-$10.6M-$7.7M-$6.0M-$6.0M.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sebastian-aho

The real question is what happens if an RFA offer sheet comes in with an $9M x 7yr contract, where Melnyk would have to pay out something like $12M-$11M-$10M in signing bonuses over the first 3 years... and the compensation is nothing more than a pair of 1st round picks (likely in the 20-32 range), a 2nd, and a 3rd.
- khawk

he would not be able to match that contract.

he would not be able to match that contract.
- Mithos

It would certainly be a critical test in terms of whether he was actually ever ready to invest in this team. On one hand, paying Tkachuk his $10M-$12M signing bonuses when the team payroll is barely at the cap floor would probably actually be more feasible than waiting until they've got a $75M-$80M AAV team payroll to start paying out major $$$. On the other, Melnyk is two-faced jacka$$, who can't even go on vacation in the Bahamas with trying to sink the boat.

If someone extend Tkachuk an offer sheet for let's say 8 mil. X3 plus 7x7x7 signing bonus does Melnyck have match only the AAV or also match the bonuses.
- granpa

So you mean 8M + 7M signing bonus = 15M a year?

That would cost the team making the offersheet 4 x 1st round picks. In that case, you let Brady go.

If you meant 1M + 7M signing bonus = 8M a year? Then you match and trade him at some point in the next 3 years.

It's both the AAV and contract structure. That was the whole point of the Aho RFA offer sheet with Montreal, they felt they could bully Carolina by front-loading the contract with both salary and signing bonus $$$. Case-in-point, Aho's contract is over 91% comprised of signing bonuses, with a year-over-year payout of $12.0M-$10.6M-$7.7M-$6.0M-$6.0M.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sebastian-aho

The real question is what happens if an RFA offer sheet comes in with a $9M x 7yr contract with a comparable signing bonus structure, where Melnyk would have to pay out something like $12M-$11M-$10M in signing bonuses over the first 3 years... and the compensation is nothing more than a pair of 1st round picks (likely in the 20-32 range), a 2nd, and a 3rd.
- khawk

I believe the calculation on the AAV includes all money paid.

My guess is that this kind of offer sheet might be the best possible outcome for the Sens. When the Flyers offer sheeted Weber, Nashville was forced to financially restructure the team. They got everything done in 24 hours. I am confident that the same response would happen in Ottawa.

So you mean 8M + 7M signing bonus = 15M a year?

That would cost the team making the offersheet 4 x 1st round picks. In that case, you let Brady go.

If you meant 1M + 7M signing bonus = 8M a year? Then you match and trade him at some point in the next 3 years.
- Lukus

I think so.

It's both the AAV and contract structure. That was the whole point of the Aho RFA offer sheet with Montreal, they felt they could bully Carolina by front-loading the contract with both salary and signing bonus $$$. Case-in-point, Aho's contract is over 91% comprised of signing bonuses, with a year-over-year payout of $12.0M-$10.6M-$7.7M-$6.0M-$6.0M.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sebastian-aho

The real question is what happens if an RFA offer sheet comes in with a $9M x 7yr contract with a comparable signing bonus structure, where Melnyk would have to pay out something like $12M-$11M-$10M in signing bonuses over the first 3 years... and the compensation is nothing more than a pair of 1st round picks (likely in the 20-32 range), a 2nd, and a 3rd.
- khawk

Melnyck walks away. It could very well happen.

Melnyck walks away. It could very well happen.
- granpa

Does he, though? After 4 years of one of the most aggressive burn-down rebuilds in NHL history, where you had the NHL's worst attendance prior to 2 seasons of pandemic hockey, you're going to walk away from the guy you've been touting all summer as the face of your team? Seems to me it's far more likely that he'd give the money to Tkachuk for the season-ticket/jersey sales, plus the optics of looking like you're not going to be pushed around... but then just squeeze every other part of the roster dry to compensate. In many ways, it might actually be worse than him walking away, because the Senators are to the salary cap floor what the Lightning are to the salary cap ceiling.

Then again, that's one of the risks the player takes by signing an RFA offer sheet. The team could match out of spite, and then you're stuck for 7 years on a team that semi-resents your actions, and can't afford to be competitive around your contract. Tkachuk's stated desire to not be stuck during his prime years on a team that's not trying to compete may actually be the most effective deterrent to that kind of offer sheet coming into play.

I seriously don’t understand the idea behind Logan Brown. Dude has been injured and hasn’t been able to put together a full season in a long time.
Why is it in the interest of the Senators - a team coming out of a rebuild, to not allow players to develop and rush them?
I don’t get it. Nazem Kadri was incredibly hated in his time with Toronto and after 4 years he FINALLY broke through.
Logan Brown is a bigger forward and unless you’re Lindros or Sundin big players usually take many years to get acclimated to the NHL game.
Giving up on a high 1st round pick from five years ago is like trying to make harvest in late August - of course you will get something in return but nothing near what it would be if given the additional month to grow.


Why is there such a rush to get rid of Brown?
Why is there so much animosity and impatience with this player?
I don’t understand it and I don’t understand why you would trade an asset that is at its most lowest value.


Makes no sense to me. Brown could be a great 3C in the future and yet here is all the media and bandwagon folk ready to ship him out.
There is a difference between a “bust” and someone who has been riddled with “injuries”.
You got to give Brown more time.
- Unholy_Forward

Why the L. Brown trade is so difficult for Dorion is that he knows he's going to be a good NHL player. He also knows that he'll never play for DJ so he's stuck trying to move him. He also knows that he'll look like a fool if Brown succeeds somewhere else. That's why he's desperately trying to squeeze as much as he can from trading partners. Let's hope it doesn't blow up in his face.

Does he, though? After 4 years of one of the most aggressive burn-down rebuilds in NHL history, where you had the NHL's worst attendance prior to 2 seasons of pandemic hockey, you're going to walk away from the guy you've been touting all summer as the face of your team? Seems to me it's far more likely that he'd give the money to Tkachuk for the season-ticket/jersey sales, plus the optics of looking like you're not going to be pushed around... but then just squeeze every other part of the roster dry to compensate. In many ways, it might actually be worse than him walking away, because the Senators are to the salary cap floor what the Lightning are to the salary cap ceiling.

Then again, that's one of the risks the player takes by signing an RFA offer sheet. The team could match out of spite, and then you're stuck for 7 years on a team that semi-resents your actions, and can't afford to be competitive around your contract. Tkachuk's stated desire to not be stuck during his prime years on a team that's not trying to compete may actually be the most effective deterrent to that kind of offer sheet coming into play.
- khawk

I agree that's why I would sign a bridge in a heartbeat. Not good for Sens but good for Tkachuk. I'm sorry for all the diehard fans but if I'm a player agent I would do my best to get my client away from Melnyck.

Why the L. Brown trade is so difficult for Dorion is that he knows he's going to be a good NHL player. He also knows that he'll never play for DJ so he's stuck trying to move him. He also knows that he'll look like a fool if Brown succeeds somewhere else. That's why he's desperately trying to squeeze as much as he can from trading partners. Let's hope it doesn't blow up in his face.
- granpa

Most roster decisions are worked out on the ice by the players.

There does not seem to be any groundswell of support among the players for Brown.

It is not working with the coaches. More important it does not seem to be working with the players. Hard to figure out what would be a fair outcome.

If Brown fails to break into the NHL with his next club, it could be devastating for his career aspirations. Perhaps a year in Europe is not such a bad idea.

I agree that's why I would sign a bridge in a heartbeat. Not good for Sens but good for Tkachuk. I'm sorry for all the diehard fans but if I'm a player agent I would do my best to get my client away from Melnyck.
- granpa

I think the bridge works better for the Sens as well.

Love Tkachuk, but not sure he is the elite player some folks want him to be. If, for example, he were playing on a contending team this past year, I don't think anyone would be talking $8mx8.

On the other hand, his physical game makes him a very valuable asset and Sens would have no problems recovering fair value (or better) on their investment 2 or 3 years out.

I think the bridge works better for the Sens as well.

Love Tkachuk, but not sure he is the elite player some folks want him to be. If, for example, he were playing on a contending team this past year, I don't think anyone would be talking $8mx8.

On the other hand, his physical game makes him a very valuable asset and Sens would have no problems recovering fair value (or better) on their investment 2 or 3 years out.
- spatso

Great points, but that is why I truly think a 5-6 year contract is what Brady wants and management needs to get it done now!

Great points, but that is why I truly think a 5-6 year contract is what Brady wants and management needs to get it done now!
- Kevin Francis

I would prefer 3 years, but would have no problem with a 5 or 6 year deal. But, I would balk at the inclusion of a highly restrictive no trade ask. Teams need to learn that they are going to have to flip players (or let them walk) rather than getting played by player agents in mindless bidding games.